Ajay Kumar
Lucknow: The Election Commission has put an end to all speculations regarding election dates by deciding to hold by-elections for nine of the ten vacant assembly seats in Uttar Pradesh on November 20. Both the BJP and the Samajwadi Party (SP) have set up their strategies. Both parties are exercising caution in selecting candidates, entrusting election duties to their prominent leaders. The SP has already assigned several senior leaders, including National General Secretary Shivpal Singh Yadav, as election in-charges for six seats back in August. The SP has also declared its candidates for these six seats. For the remaining four seats, the SP may field candidates in two, while it is expected to allocate the Ghaziabad seat to Congress. According to sources, discussions are also underway between the SP and Congress regarding the Khair seat in Aligarh.
Among the nine seats announced for the by-elections, the SP won four (Karhal, Katehari, Kundarki, and Sisamau) in the 2022 elections, while the RLD secured the Meerapur seat in alliance with the SP. The SP has entrusted Shivpal Singh Yadav with overseeing the Katehari seat. MP Awadhesh Prasad and Leader of Opposition in the Legislative Council Lal Bihari Yadav have been appointed in charge of the Milkipur seat, although this seat has not yet been declared for by-elections. MP Veerendra Singh from Chandauli has been assigned the Mjhvaw seat, former minister Chandradev Yadav for Karhal, National General Secretary Indrajeet Saroj for Phoolpur, and MLA Rajendra Kumar for Sisamau. The SP has yet to announce its in-charges for Ghaziabad, Khair, Meerapur, and Kundarki seats. In the 2022 assembly elections, SP President Akhilesh Yadav won the Karhal seat, where his nephew Tej Pratap Yadav has been fielded this time. Tej Pratap, husband of former Bihar CM Lalu Prasad Yadav’s daughter Rajalakshmi Yadav, was elected MP from Mainpuri in 2014. He was later nominated to contest from Kannauj in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, but Akhilesh himself decided to run at the last minute.
In Sisamau, the SP’s Irfan Solanki won previously but lost his seat due to a court sentence. His wife Naseem Solanki will contest the by-election from this seat. Muzaffar Siddiqui, a three-time MLA, will be fielded from Phoolpur. Showbhavati Verma, wife of the MP Lalji Verma, will contest from Katehari, while Dr. Jyoti Bind, daughter of former BSP MLA and BJP MP Dr. Ramesh Bind, will contest from Mjhvaw. Akhilesh Yadav has instructed all youth wing members to mobilize for these elections, although he usually keeps his distance from campaigning during by-elections.
On the other hand, for the BJP, which faced a setback from the SP-Congress alliance in the Lok Sabha elections, these by-elections are seen as a crucial test. The party aims to perform well in order to settle scores ahead of the Lok Sabha elections and to send a strong message for the upcoming assembly elections. Before the announcement of the by-election dates, the ruling party had already deployed all its ministers at the ground level. The RLD’s support further boosts the BJP’s expectations. The BJP has managed to recover significantly from the shock caused by the SP’s strategy targeting the backward, Dalit, and minority communities during the Lok Sabha elections. Additionally, the party has also been somewhat successful in dispelling the confusion surrounding reservations spread by Congress and the SP among the backward and Dalit communities. The BJP’s strategy for the by-elections is to retain all its seats while trying to penetrate the opposition ranks. The duties of 30 ministers from Yogi’s government have been assigned to these constituencies, including 14 cabinet and 16 state ministers.
Alongside the BJP and SP, Congress, which had unexpected success in the state after allying with the SP in the Lok Sabha elections, is also focused on these assembly by-elections. Although Congress may have a minor role in terms of seats, the party is making every effort to maintain its visibility ahead of the forthcoming assembly elections. Congress state president Ajay Rai has made it clear that their goal is to defeat the BJP. Due to the alliance with the SP, Congress is likely to receive the Khair and Ghaziabad seats. The party has staked its claim on five seats previously won by the BJP and RLD. While the Milkipur seat has not yet been announced for elections, the SP intends to retain the Kundarki and Meerapur seats. Therefore, Congress will focus on strengthening its organization across all seats, which may benefit it in the future.
As for the BSP, it plans to field its candidates independently for the by-elections in Uttar Pradesh. The BSP did not enter into any alliances during the last Lok Sabha elections. Steering clear of both NDA and INDIA, the BSP could not win any seats. Recently, in the Haryana assembly elections, Mayawati formed an alliance with the INLD, but failed to win even a single seat, and the party’s vote share decreased compared to earlier. Consequently, BSP chief Mayawati has decided not to form any electoral alliances with regional parties in any state in the future.
